Demonstration Effect

Sep 17th 2009 | KATHMANDU
From The Economist print edition

LIGHTING Kathmandu with torches by night, protesters have been darkening it by day. Wherever Madhav Kumar Nepal, the prime minister, and his cabinet go, they are greeted by angry Maoists brandishing black flags. A political stand-off is worsening, threatening the fragile peace that has prevailed in Nepal since the end in 2006 of the Maoists’ ten-year insurgency.

September 11th saw the biggest demonstration since May, when Pushpa Kamal Dahal (formerly known as Prachanda), the Maoist leader, resigned as prime minister and took his party into opposition. In a speech to a flag-waving crowd of about 15,000, many in red bandannas, he recalled the 40 demands he made in 1996 to the then government. Its mistake, he said, was to ignore them. Now he has 45.

The implied threat of renewed insurrection may be a bluff. But it shows how bad the Maoists’ relations with Mr Nepal’s ruling coalition have become. Mr Dahal had two objectives: to placate restive party activists still waiting for a revolution; and to leave room for a negotiated outcome.

The Maoists have been protesting ever since May. Mr Dahal resigned when he was thwarted in his attempt to sack the army chief, General Rookmangud Katawal, over his refusal to accept the integration of some 20,000 former Maoist fighters into the national army. General Katawal, who has since retired, was reinstated by the president. The Maoists allege this was unconstitutional and have been demanding a parliamentary debate about it.

The chances of a return to war remain slight. But Mr Nepal’s fragile 22-party coalition is running out of time to find a compromise, as the Maoists, who have blockaded parliament since May, step up their protests, and demonstrate at every government event. In some districts they have begun to set up parallel local governments. This week a Maoist-affiliated trade union shut some private secondary schools across the country for four days. In Kathmandu riot police have responded to protests with bamboo sticks and tear-gas.

Having marginalised themselves, the Maoists now want to lead the government again. They won more seats than any other party in last year’s elections for the constituent assembly. Many analysts believe their inclusion in government is essential for the peace process. But they are not satisfied with a partnership in the coalition, which is all Mr Nepal’s ruling centre-left party has offered them so far. Mr Nepal has also accused the Maoists of trying to split both his party and the coalition. It is just possible that the Maoists will agree to join the coalition under a leader other than Mr Nepal, and that talks due as The Economist was going to press, between the Maoists and the two biggest parties in the ruling coalition, break the deadlock.

Despite the political stalemate, some ground has been made in recent weeks. The constituent assembly, which is supposed to write a constitution for the young republic, has managed to elect a new chairman for the main drafting committee, suspended since May. And the Maoists, who say they will not block the peace process, have agreed to sit on the committee responsible for merging the armies, which intends to complete the job in six months. But it has yet to agree on if or how the former fighters are to be integrated into the army. Until it does, and until a way is found to bring the Maoists back into government, a durable peace will remain elusive.